Scientific journal
Научное обозрение. Экономические науки
ISSN 2500-3410
ПИ №ФС77-57503

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INTEGRATED HOUSING MARKET FORECAST FOR RUSSIA

Ivanenkova E.D. 1 Ryzhkova М.V. 1
1 National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University
Authors formulate original method of forecasting real estate market indicators. Two short-term forecast are compiled. The first is a forecast of housing supply in two variants: basic and high (made in accordance with the objectives set by the «Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020»). The second is a demographic projection according to the new migration policy that helps to identify the needs of Russian population in housing. In the projections is used the combined method, involving the use of deflators and volume indexes, extrapolations and method of classification by year of birth. Comparison of forecast’s results show that in the coming years, consumer demand for new housing can not be met even if targets of «Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020» will be achieved .