Scientific journal
Научное обозрение. Экономические науки
ISSN 2500-3410
ПИ №ФС77-57503

Personal portfolio

MODEL FOR DETERMINATION OF THE OPTIMAL PLAN OF THE AVAILABLE CAPACITY OF THE HPPS WITH ITS UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION

Budylin M.A. 1 Sokolov S.V. 2
1 Siberian State Aerospace University named after academician M. F. Reshetnev 31 «Krasnoyarskiy Rabochiy» pr.
2 Saint-Petersburg State University7-9 Universitetskaya nab.
Electricity is one of the basic sectors of the national economy. Forecasting electricity consumption, the planning and structure of generating capacities is a priority for the development of all industries, including both traditional and high-tech production. Reform of the electricity sector, conducted in many countries, including Russia, has led to the creation of the wholesale market of electricity (capacity). Providing satisfaction to the medium - and long-term demand on the wholesale market by using different mechanisms of regulation by governmental agencies and infrastructure organizations. Depending on the regulatory mechanisms of the generating company the optimal strategy of planning their production capacities can be determined. The authors describe the existing conditions and constraints by determination the actual scope of capacity supply to the wholesale market. The shortcomings of the used in Russia scheduling techniques of the available capacity for hydroelectric power plants are analyzed when applying for competitive capacity selection. The article establishes a review of available capacity as a uniformly distributed random variable. Statistic approaches to the analysis of different «Nature games» having one player – a man moving intentionally and another – the nature without any strategic interest are described. The authors propose a mathematical model for the expected income determining when apply for competitive capacity selection regarding a uniformly distributed random variable of available capacity. Optimal solution considering maximization of the income expected is introduced. Expected profit is calculated. The authors proved that in case the capacity’s underdelivery is punished with a fine of 5 per cent, the optimal solution approaches the value of the maximum volume of the available power.