Scientific journal
Научное обозрение. Экономические науки
ISSN 2500-3410
ПИ №ФС77-57503

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MATHEMATICAL MODELING DYNAMICS OF ECONOMIC INDICATORS (THE CASE OF REVENUE IT-COMPANY)

Kuznetsov V.D. 1 Tregub I.V. 1
1 The Federal State-Funded Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education «Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation»
Factors, influencing the value of the IT-company’s revenue were identified by analysis of the current state of the IT sector as an integral part of information-communication technologies. A complex of econometric models describing the dynamics of the revenue of the IT-company was developed with the use of real statistical data on the company performance. Using the Akaike and Schwartz information criteria the best model was selected. This model included the following factors: costs of advertising in the media, size of the investment in fixed assets in Russia, profits of all large and medium-sized enterprises in Russia. To predict the volume of investment in fixed assets and the value of the random disturbance separate simulation models were developed. As a result of research a reverse cumulative distribution function of the revenue of IT-company was plotted to predict the future minimum values ​​of the company’s revenue with the desired degree of certainty.