science-review.ru
Scientific journal
Научное обозрение. Экономические науки
ISSN 2500-3410
ПИ №ФС77-57503
ISSN 2500-3410
ПИ №ФС77-57503
RISK DETECTION AND ASSESSMENT OF THE INNOVATIVE PROJECT IN NUCLEAR ENERGY SECTOR
225 KB
The present contribution is devoted to the qualitative analysis of the risks of the innovative project of constructing the first line of nuclear plants consisting of nine BN-1200-type power reactors. The main risk factors of the project are denoted. The quantitative assessment of the risk factors influence on the basic economic indicators of the project is carried out. The main methods used for computations are sensitivity analysis and the Monte-Carlo simulation modeling. It was found that the trends observed in the time variations of the capital costs in energy sphere and particularly in the nuclear energy sector play the prevailing role in the uncertainty of the innovative project economic indicators. The second most important factor was found to be an uncertainty in the production costs of nuclear fuel for fast-neutron reactors as well as of the construction of the corresponding manufacturing enterprises. The results obtained allow author to make certain conclusions on the positive prospective of the innovative project of creating nuclear power plants based on BN-1200 reactors as well as to develop recommendations that would help in decreasing the negative economic effects caused by the presence of the risk factors. Particularly, it was shown that given the constant electric energy price and the discount rate fixed at certain value, the economic indicators of the project are strongly affected by the decrease of the construction time.